Outbreaks are comparatively smaller in states where efforts to contain the virus were stronger over the summer and fall potential good news for leaders taking action now. Writing original draft, "At first blush," Jha says, it "looks like their different COVID strategies did not end up mattering much." Instead, it analyzed the connection between mask mandate policies and the rate of new county-level coronavirus cases and deaths. For the most recent updates on COVID-19, visit our coronavirus news page. We all want to be able to be with friends and family this spring and summer, and we all dont want to have [to] go back to the more stringent mitigation measures, so gathering outside and wearing masks is the best way to allow both to happen.. broad scope, and wide readership a perfect fit for your research every time. Writing review & editing, Affiliation The researchers found that 14 of the 15 states with no mask mandates had high COVID-19 rates for at least one month during the study period. A June 2020 study published in the journal Health Affairs comparing COVID-19 growth rates before and after mask mandates in 15 states and Washington, D.C., found wearing masksled to a reduction in daily cases, especially over time. The United States, as of Friday, posted a seven-day moving average of 62,555 new COVID-19 cases reported daily, according to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.The last time . Texas locked down in the spring, when it had relatively few cases, then reopened quickly. (Andy Wong) HONG KONG (AP) Hong Kong will lift its mask mandate on Wednesday, ending the city's last major restriction imposed during the . When Can I Go Out in Public Again After Being Fully Vaccinated? Nevertheless, it is possible that average mask adherence in a given month does not capture the most effective time period that influences COVID-19 rates. The claim that a CDC study found face masks to have a negligible effect on the spread of COVID-19 is FALSE. Following the institution of mask mandates, rates of new infections and deaths that had been rising reversed and started declining, Reed said. Coronavirus cases are rising in almost every U.S. state. Only one study examined the relationship between lifting mask mandates and population level COVID-19 outcomes, and observed a statistically significant increase in COVID-19 cases 45 days after lifting mask mandate in early 2021. Of the 8 states with at least 75% mask adherence, none reported a high COVID-19 rate. We infer that mandates likely did not affect COVID-19 case growth, as growth rates were similar on all days between actual or modeled issuance dates and 6 March 2021. Our observation that states with mask adherence by 75% of the population was associated with lower COVID-19 rates in the subsequent month suggests that states should strive to meet this threshold. 2023 Manhattan Institute for Policy Research, Inc. All rights reserved. Models were unadjusted, adjusted for no mask policy (Model 1), and adjusted for no mask policy in previous month, no stay-home order, >15% population non-Hispanic Black, >15% population Hispanic, median age >40 years, population density > 200/square mile (Model 2). Indeed all 13 states in the low mask adherence group in September had high COVID-19 rates in October. Petrie came to the same conclusion as Bisesiafter reading the study, saying the results were statistically significant. The claim that a CDC study found face masks to have a negligible effect on the spread of COVID-19 is FALSE. We show that mask mandates are associated with a statistically significant decrease in new cases (-3.55 per 100K), deaths (-0.13 per 100K), and the proportion of hospital admissions (-2.38 percentage points) up to 40 days after the introduction of mask mandates both at the state and county level. If Florida's case numbers understate the true number of infections more than California's do, that could partially explain the difference in COVID-19 deaths per capita. The same basic pattern was seen in nearly every state. The study used county-level data from March 1 through Dec. 31 of last year, comparing data from before mandates tookeffect to the time period when they were in place. Its a graph that should be required viewing for everyone still wearing a mask and every public official or journalist who still insists that mask mandates control the spread.. Competing interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist. If you add up all the numbers on those two lines, you find that the mask mandates made zero difference. The question is and Im sure thats the conversation now happening in the halls of power what do we do next? Coronavirus: How R-0 can be used to fight COVID-19. Given the situation during the omicron surge, there are additional reasons to doubt that mask mandates, even with perfect compliance, had much of an impact. We did estimate odds ratios for mask adherence within subgroups of states with and without mask policy. Immediately after these mandates were instituted, these declines were statistically significant.. It is also possible that survey respondents misreported their mask wearing adherence; whether they would be more or less likely to over or under-report is open to speculation, but residents in states with mask wearing policy might over-report adherence to appear compliant. We thank Dr. Julia Raifman Boston University School of Public Health for developing, maintaining, and providing open access to the COVID-19 US State Policy Database. Of states with high COVID-19 rates that at some point did not require residents to wear masks -- including Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Iowa, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, New Hampshire,. [But] many of us are growing weary of mask-wearing and would love permission to toss them aside and go back to pre-pandemic times," Werler says. here. A couple weeks into those lockdowns, countries with new restrictions may be seeing results: The rate of new daily cases has begun to level off or drop in France, Spain, Germany and Italy, though it continues to rise in the United Kingdom. It also examined the link between allowing on-site restaurant dining and the number of coronavirus cases and deaths. Five states are rolling back mask mandates. Investigation, But the surge is worst now in places where leaders neglected to keep up forceful virus containment efforts or failed to implement basic measures like mask mandates in the first place, according to a New York Times analysis of data from the University of Oxford. When the initial spring wave in 2020 subsided, public officials and journalists claimed that the mandates had worked, and they kept up the pretense even when Covid surged again later that year despite the continuing mandates. She holds a Masters in Psychology concentrating on Behavioral Neuroscience. Eleven states had no stay-at-home order, 15 had no mask policy, and four states had low adherence throughout this six-month period. Ashish Jha, dean of Brown University's School of Public Health, notes that the graph for California, which required masks in indoor public settings beginning on December 15, is "strikingly similar" to the graph for Florida, which had no mask mandates. Our website is not intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis, or treatment. Jacob Sullum is a senior editor at Reason. On November 8, Utah implemented a mask mandate, as new daily Covid-19 cases continue to rise in the state and across the country. The masks in Germany obviously didnt beat Covid. From the start of the pandemic through this spring, the cumulative rate of Covid mortality has been slightly higher in Sweden than in Germany (by about 15 percent), but the rate of overall excess mortality has been slightly higher in Germany (by about 8 percent). + Caption. Prior to adopting mask mandates, those municipalities that eventually adopted mandates had higher transmission rates than the rest of the state, with the mean case rate difference per 100,000 people increasing by 0.32 cases per day (slope of difference = 0.32; 95% CI 0.13 to 0.51). The list of states with high COVID-19 rates by month shows the initial wave in northeastern states in May, followed by a wave in southern states, and then spreading across the U.S. over the next four months (Table 2). Since the spring, Maine mandated masks and had strict travel restrictions for out-of-state visitors; South Dakota, meanwhile, has never had a mask mandate and welcomed nearly half a million people to the Sturgis motorcycle rally, as well as its state fair, which attracted more than 100,000 visitors. However, you should continue to wear your mask in crowded public areas and when meeting unvaccinated people. Louisiana. Data Availability: Data are available in the paper and its Supporting Information file. | Sources: Note: The position for a state on a given date reflects the 7-day average of cases on that date and the containment index value from two weeks prior, to account for a lag between policies and outcomes. The adoption of universal masking policies is increasingly polarized and politicized, demanding that public health authorities balance the values of health and individual liberty. For the period of April 1 through October 31, 2020, less than half of states had issued a mandate for mask wearing in public and nearly a third had not made any recommendation. California tested a larger share of its population at the peak of its omicron surge than Florida did, and Florida's positivity rate was higher, which suggests that Florida missed a larger share of infections than California. On the other hand, Hawaii and Connecticut had two of the longest mask mandates and also some of the lowest per capita case counts of all the states. Many Americans went maskless in public on Friday for the first time in months a day after the . Visualization, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0249891.t003. Yes Of course, many other factors are could be at play, like the possibility of cooler weather driving non-adherent persons to indoor gatherings. Of note, there were no states with 75% in September. Verywell Health's content is for informational and educational purposes only. Traveling This Summer? The pandemic has eased, but not the compulsion of many Americans to cover their faces. Many states in the Upper Midwest and Mountain West resisted more stringent control measures, like limits on gatherings and mask mandates. When Can I Go to the Movie Theater Again After Being Fully Vaccinated? It compares Germany with Sweden, the medias Covid villain for refusing to lock down or mandate masks. J.B. Pritzker. Even as more and more states encourage or even mandate mask wearing, many citizens still resist the notion. Yes We show supporting evidence for reducing the spread of COVID-19 through mask wearing. Effectiveness of Mask Wearing to Control Community Spread of SARS-CoV-2. | How Are States Responding to CDC Mask Guidelines? Eight states were reported to have at least 75% mask adherence in any month between June and September (AZ, CT, HI, MA, NY, RI, VT, VA); none reported a high COVID-19 rate in the subsequent month. She finds that mask-wearing is still the best course of action for mixed-vaccination status gatherings. After briefly ramping up restrictions closing bars, restaurants, gyms, theaters and schools in March, when most other states did, Gov. Writing original draft. While mandates required shoppers to don masks before entering supermarkets, for example, the risk of transmission in such settings is low, given the amount of time customers usually spend in them, the size of the air space, and typically wide distances between patrons. Investigation, Using public data, the researchers found a bigger decline in daily Covid-19 cases in states with mask mandates compared with those without, estimating that as many as 200,000 Covid-19. I just dont know based on reading the OAN summary how they came to the same conclusions because the CDC conclusions were favorable.. States that have kept more control policies in a more consistent way New England states, for example have avoided a summer surge and are now having a smaller fall surge, as opposed to states that rolled them back very quickly like Florida or Texas, Mr. Hale said. In fact, the researchers calculated that for every 1% increase in wearing a mask in September, the odds of having high state-wide COVID-19 rates dropped by 26%. But the surge is worst now in places where leaders neglected to keep up forceful virus containment efforts or failed to implement. Air travel is finally poised to recover its pre-Covid passenger numbers, but environmental groups want to slow down the industry. here. But the "reference period" is defined by the report as the 20 days before mask mandates started. "The probability of becoming a rapid riser county was 43% lower among counties that had statewide mask mandates at reopening," the researchers reported. Our fact check work is supported in part by a grant from Facebook. We observed some benefit of mask policy on COVID-19 rates, but the findings were unstable. Butthe difference between the 20 days before the mask mandates and the 40 days before that period was not statistically significant. Yes Currently, patients, visitors and staff members at UCHealth are required to wear a mask at all times. Some reopened quickly and saw cases rise. States with the lowest levels of mask adherence were most likely to have high COVID-19 rates in the subsequent month, independent of mask policy or demographic factors. I dont know what factors influenced this dramatic change in mask-wearing, but our data show their COVID-19 rates subsequently plummeted.. Even as states begin loosening COVID-19 restrictions, experts say masks are still the country's best line of defense against the virus. Even at small gatherings with unvaccinated people from different bubbles, like graduation parties with relatives from afar and families from the neighborhood, all attendees should wear masks," she says. Now, nearly one in 10 North Dakotans have tested positive about a third of those in the past two weeks and one in 1,000 have died of the virus. Its been largely delegated to a subnational level, to the states, for example, and municipalities to figure it out themselves.. Mask adherence was associated with lower odds of high COVID-19 rates, even after adjustment for mask policy and for demographic factors. After the pandemic, a survey of gains and losses. But even allowing for differences in testing rates, the similarity in case trends is striking. Researchers found that out of 15 states that did not require people to wear masks in public, 14 had high COVID-19 rates. So did New Mexico, whose surge began shortly after Scientific American praised the states strict mask policies in an article headlined, How New Mexico Controlled the Spread of Covid-19.. Based on data from various countries and U.S. states from May to September 2020, a preprint study published last June found that general mask wearing was associated with a reduction in virus. In addition, Hawaii and Oregon, which have both implemented school mask. Beyond the question of how effective masking is in practice, there is the question of what impact mask mandates have on behavior. Across these four months, the proportion of states with COVID rates in the high category were 19 (37%), 19 (37%), 20 (39%), and 32 (63%), respectively. Our analysis suggests high adherence to mask wearing could be a key factor in reducing the spread of COVID-19. PLoS ONE 16(4): No, Is the Subject Area "United States" applicable to this article? We thank Drs. Most states in the low quartile had high COVID-19 rates in the subsequent month. A new study finds that states with high rates of mask-wearing experienced fewer COVID-19 cases. We examined the impact of state-based mask wearing policy and adherence on COVID-19 case rates during the summer and early fall of 2020 in order to quantify this effect. Mandating masks gave the illusion of doing something against the virus. States and D.C. were categorized as having policy if it was issued for at least one day of a given month. ", More: Fact check: Masks and vaccines are effective at combating COVID-19 spread, Reed said the CDC's reportdid not examine the effectiveness of masks.. But the study did not take into account other policies or voluntary safeguards that may have differed between jurisdictions with and without mask mandates. We used state-level data on mask wearing policy for the general public and on proportion of residents who stated they always wear masks in public. 2.18.2022 4:30 PM. The study concluded that mask mandates and use are not associated with slower state-level Covid-19 spread during Covid-19 growth surges. The medias narrative about masks extended throughout the world. The announcement comes one day after Joe Biden pleaded with state and local leaders to maintain or reinstate mask mandates, due to recent alarming trends in US coronavirus case numbers. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0249891.g002. For each month, the distributions of mask adherence across all 50 states and D.C. were categorized into quartiles, meaning the cut-off values for each quartile may be different from one month to another. "Lifting of mask mandates across the board without consideration of the caveats does open the opportunity for another wave," Werler says. This pattern of magical thinking persisted throughout the pandemic, as Miller demonstrates in dozens of graphs contrasting conventional wisdom with cruel reality. Another recent study published in the Annals of Epidemiology looking at county-level COVID-19 incidence found counties across the U.S. with shorter lockdowns, none at all or without statewide mask mandates when the state reopened were more likely to see a spike in infectious cases during the summer months (the study looked at more than 3,000 counties between June 1 and Sept. 30). Although Hawaiis governor did not issue a mask wearing policy until after October 2020, we considered that state to have a policy because mayors of the four populous counties had mandated mask wearing earlier in the pandemic. Since July 27, 2020, individuals had been required to wear a mask or face covering in the state when visiting public indoor spaces and when unable to maintain a 6-foot distance from. By Lauren Leatherby and Rich HarrisNov. Counties with mask mandates saw a 6% reduction in cases; counties without experienced a 100% increase. However, the COVID-19 rates continued to be higher in places with low mask adherence. They looked at data from April to October 2020. Note: Measurements of government response come from the Oxford Covid-19 Government Response Trackers Containment and Health Index, which is the organizations index focused on virus containment and protecting citizen health. Again and again, journalists and public-health officials would single out a state or a nation that had supposedly tamed Covid by forcing citizens to wear masksand then these masks would promptly fail to prevent an unprecedented wave of infections. States That Imposed Few Restrictions Now Have the Worst Outbreaks. New Zealand recently lifted all restrictions following 10 days with no new cases. The Archdiocese also cited declining rates of Covid-19 transmission in its decision to relax masking rules. Among states and D.C. with no mask wearing policy, 50 to 73% had high COVID-19 rates in the subsequent month. Even Greenpeace now admits the obvious: recycling doesnt work. But the researchers found no clear relationship between mask mandates and mask use. Its Legacy Is Disastrous. PLOS ONE promises fair, rigorous peer review, Effectiveness of Mask Wearing to Control Community Spread of SARS-CoV-2. Taiwan recently recorded 200 days without a new coronavirus case after its leaders focused on a speedy response and invested in mass testing and contact tracing. Eleanor J. Murray and Jennifer Weuve and the Boston University School of Public Health Epidemiology COVID-19 Response Corps for bringing together students and faculty for this project. As indicated on the graph, surveys during the pandemic showed that fewer than 10 percent of Swedes bothered to wear masks. The worst outbreaks in the country now are in places where policymakers did the least to prevent transmission, according to the Oxford index. We recommend renewed efforts be employed to improve adherence to mask wearing. Crude and adjusted odds ratios for any mask policy in relation to high COVID-19 rates in the subsequent month were below 1.0; but confidence intervals were wide. Overall, there is no obvious difference between states with mask mandates and states without them. The study referenced in the One America News Network report says the opposite, noting that mask mandates were linked to statistically significant decreases in COVID-19 case within 20 days of implementation. Our research examines mask wearing policy and adherence in association with COVID-19 case rates. The current surge is worst in places with few containment measures. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0249891, Editor: Wen-Jun Tu, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, CHINA, Received: January 12, 2021; Accepted: March 26, 2021; Published: April 14, 2021. Our study was also limited by the lack of information on accessibility of COVID-19 testing; if less accessible testing is associated with less mask adherence, the associations we report here may be under-estimates. The 10th Amendment's anti-commandeering provision bars "the federal government from . An Annals of Epidemiology study published last May found that mask mandates in the United States were associated with lower transmission rates from June through September 2020. By the time the mandates were introduced in New York and other states in the spring of 2020 (at the left side of the graph), infections had already been declining in those states, and the mandates didnt prevent a surge later that year, when cases rose and fell in nearly identical trajectories regardless of states mask policies. What theyre looking at here is efficacy of mask mandates. Exhibit 4 Sensitivity analysis: ratios of daily COVID-19 case incidence per 100,000 people between matched counties with and without masking mandates, overall and by county type, among a subset of . Thinking persisted throughout the pandemic has eased, but not the compulsion of many Americans to cover faces! What theyre looking at here is efficacy of mask wearing policy, 50 to 73 % had high rates. X27 ; s anti-commandeering provision bars & quot ; the federal government.. Had no mask wearing could be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis, or treatment case.. 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